ABOUT THYME FOR CHANGE

Previously, I explored the possible synergy of the GERD’s construction for the three downstream riparians. One thing that became evident is the heavy reliance on the Nile’s flows by Egypt and Sudan and how volatile their situations may become with increasing climate variability and usage of the Nile by other riparians.

Here I will investigate the necessity for Sudan and Egypt to adapt to other means of water resources to increase food security.

To meet increasing demand of food, two policies can be implemented: domestic food growth or importing food. One of the top priorities of African countries is to increase food security – the ability to feed the population comfortably . Egypt employed several agricultural projects to expand cultivated land and boost domestic agricultural production (Hamza & Mason 2004). Egypt’s estimates claim an additional 20.9km³ per year^-1 may become available through more efficient water usage and cropping patterns (ibid).

THE TOSHKA PROJECT

Egypt has a total land area of 995,450km², of which only 3.7% is arable (World Bank 2018). The majority of arable land is situated along the Nile Valley which is also were most of Egypt’s inhabitants’ dwell.  In fact, between 1992-2015, nearly 75,000 hectares of arable land around the Nile Delta was lost to urban sprawl (Radwan et al. 2019). This led the Egyptian government implement greening techniques, giving birth to the Toshka project.

Source: Egypt Population Density

First introduced by then President Hosni Mubarak, the Toshka project aimed to green desert lands and create viable conditions for agricultural activity. The project was ambitious to say the least and intended to recover 540,000acres of desert by devising a system of canals to irrigate water from Lakes Nasser and Toshka as well as the reservoir of the Aswan High Dam (Baker 1997). The pumping of this water alongside other cultivation efforts would expand fertile land, increasing agricultural capabilities to produce more food, improving food security and generate more jobs away from the narrow confines of the Nile Delta. However, a project of such scale is bound to have its challenges, and this is no exception. The project relied on foreign investment, which due to inter- and intra-national doubt, was scarce. This along with mismanagement, water leakage and high costs amongst other issues resulted in its failure (Sims 2015). 

Whilst this project failed, all hopes of adaptation are not lost.  President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi announced a new desert reclamation at the end of 2015, with the government planning to expand arable land by at least one-sixth under the state’s 1.5m Feddan project.

 VIRTUAL WATER 

Source: UNESCO WWAP (2015, October 30) 'Where is Water? - Water Rooms #2' 

The term ‘virtual water’ (VW) explains the ‘volume of water embodied in food crops that are traded internationally’ (Wichelns 2001:131). There is an economic dimension to VW, the concept of comparative advantage, which is crucial to comprehending the benefits of VW. By the millennium, annual importation of 50million tonnes of grain to the Middle East & North Africa equated to the importation of 50km³ of virtual water, comparable to the annual flow of the Nile to Egypt (Allan 2003).

By reducing the crops grown inland, Egypt can focus on producing specific crops, become more efficient in growing them, reducing water consumption, and inject foreign currency into the country. Presently, Egypt’s net virtual water import as a percentage of water resources is 23.55% (El-Sadek 2009). A shift from next importing to net exporting VW will maximise Egypt’s benefits of less water-intensive activity, reducing water-stress. This in turn can ease political tensions between riparians over the management of the Nile as there is less dependency on the Nile as the sole source of water for food production. One kilogram of banana produced in Egypt comprises 1300litres of virtual water, three-fold the global average (Gad et al. 2009). This demonstrates benefits of trading between efficient and inefficient water users, where the preponderance of key food exporters have productive rainfed agriculture systems, whilst major food importers are water-poor and dependent on irrigation (Barnes 2013).

Source: Water Footprint

Thus, there needs to be increased diversification of food sources for lower riparians to mitigate the risks of climate variability and the ever-shifting management of the Nile’s waters. Upper riparians will continue to strive for their own food and water security putting lower riparians at risk if they fail to adapt. Analysing water this way in its real and virtual forms is valuable for quantifying the water-food nexus and implementing more efficient and suitable policies.