DAM[ED] IF YOU DO, DAM[ED] IF YOU DON'T

 

Previously, I explored the contentions surrounding the construction of the GERD and the reluctance of Sudan and particularly Egypt, to welcome it due to risks of water shortages and thus food production scarcities for the lower riparians. However, there may be argument that the construction of the GERD may be synergetic in what it could offer these three nations.

Escalating tensions between Ethiopia and principally Egypt over the dam’s constructions is partially unwarranted and based on misunderstandings on the risks associated with the GERD for downstream waterflow. It is unrealistic to assume no risks will present themselves with such a large structure, but it is not without its advantages.

A tripartite panel of experts compiled of two representatives for each nation and four internationals, investigated the construction of the GERD and any consequences it would have. The final report observed no dam[ning] adverse effects on Egypt and Sudan (see what I did there!)  There are benefits to the GERD construction:

• -        Reduced siltation in the Aswan High Dam(AHD)
• -        Produces a more constant waterflow
• -        Diminishes frequented flooding in Sudan
• -        Reduced evaporation losses
• -        Improved water management

Source: Al Jazeera English (2020, July 22) 'The Politics Behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam'

WATER MANAGEMENT

A combination of agreed-upon basin-wide cooperation can manage the risks associated with the dam (Wheeler et al 2016). Annual releases of water from the GERD with drought control at the AHD will diminish risks of desertifying arable land, regulate agriculture through a robust plan in place to reduce waterflow uncertainty and maintain a healthy water-level at the AHD for Egypt to continue to use (Mohamed 2017). In fact, if the riparians are able to agree on terms of ownership rights of the GERD, Egypt and Sudan could guarantee water release before the agricultural season, decreasing Egypt’s water loss by 6%. 

EVAPORATION

Egypt receives an average of 12mm of rainfall annually and heavily relies on irrigation to cultivate land for food production (Abdel-Shafy et al 2010). Only 6% of the country is arable and agricultural land, leading to excessive watering whereby gallons of water are dumped over the crops, resulting in wasted water. As much as 6.3mm day⁻¹ of water is evaporated from Laker Nasser based on the yearly average of daily evaporation (Omran & Negm 2018), roughly 12.million m³ annually (ibid), increasing water use and stress to continue food production. Nevertheless, a report discovered that the agreed-upon 6-year filling period of the GERD is adequate in minimising impacts on current irrigated water demands and reduces evaporation by 22%. Egypt can continue to utilise the AHD at a 96% reliability level, positively affecting food production as there is less water wasted in the dry region. 

CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Source: Mean annual rainfall in Ethiopia (Berhanu et al 2013)

Egypt and Sudan are heavily reliant on the upstream headwaters of the Ethiopian highlands for their water supply, however with climate change, analysis indicates unprecedented levels of interannual and interdecadal variability in rainfall and river flow(Conway 2005). The Ethiopian Highlands reveal a declining trend in its rainfall (Awange et al 2014). The GERD will alter the economic advantages and hydrological state of the riparians, saving more than US$680 million annually from protecting water resources (Nigatu & Dinar 2016). Thus, the regulation of the Nile waters, by extension Nasser lake, reduces the impacts of climate variability on Egypt’s food production by regulating flows, reducing evaporation, and allowing greater freedoms in money available for investment into climate adaptations. In a food-insecure environment like Egypt’s and looming climate change, freedom to invest in adaptations for food production reduces the vulnerability of the agricultural sector, increasing food security (Fahim et al 2013). Increasing capacities of water management, constant waterflow and reduced evaporation, means the GERD enables a more resilient Nile. Thus, the riparians can focus on improving seawater desalinisation, maximising efficiencies in water use, irrigation and improve rain harvesting techniques, to combat escalating climate variability.

Agriculture constitutes 97% of total water withdrawal in Sudan, especially considering it has the largest area under cereal production in the Nile basin  (Ayana & Srinivasan 2019). Therefore, understanding the changes to hydrology to upstream Ethiopia due to the construction of the GERD better facilitates Sudan to mitigate risk through the development of water budgets under various management scenarios (ibid).

Egypt and Sudan need to acknowledge Ethiopia’s right to develop its water resource infrastructure and acknowledge the benefits of the GERD. However, the benefits I have outlined can only occur through tripartite cooperation.

So…

Will they adapt?